Demographic crisis: in Ukraine, mortality is almost three times higher than birth rate

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According to him, in 2024, there will be 286 deaths per 100 births, which is a significantly higher figure compared to previous years. For example, in 2019, there were 188 deaths per 100 births, and in 2021, which is considered a peak due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this figure was 263 deaths per 100 births. In 2022 and 2023, the situation remained stable – 263 and 265 deaths per 100 births, respectively. However, in the first six months of 2024, the ratio deteriorated sharply, reaching 286 deaths per 100 births.

“In order for the population not to decrease due to the natural factor, it is necessary that there are 100 deaths per 100 births. Currently, we have a mortality rate 2.8 times higher than the birth rate,” Gladun noted. He stressed that despite the lack of final data for the entire year 2024, the current figures are of serious concern.

The demographer explained that the increase in mortality and the decrease in birth rates may be related to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians are probably postponing plans to have children due to the unstable situation in the country. In addition, the demographic situation is significantly affected by hostilities, air strikes, as well as the general deterioration of the population's health due to constant stress, unavailability of medical care, and exacerbation of chronic diseases.

“The increase in mortality in this ratio indicates that fierce battles are ongoing at the front, people are dying during enemy air attacks. Also, the health of citizens is greatly affected by constant stress, the inability to receive timely medical care, and the exacerbation of chronic and psychological diseases. Unfortunately, such a situation is typical for a period of war in any country,” Oleksandr Gladun emphasized.

He also noted that the demographic crisis in Ukraine is a consequence not only of the war, but also of long-term socio-economic problems, such as migration, population aging, and low living standards. These factors affect the birth rate and mortality, creating additional challenges for the country's demographic development.

In conclusion, the situation in Ukraine remains critical, and its resolution requires comprehensive measures aimed at stabilizing the socio-economic situation, improving medical care, and creating conditions for the return of migrants. Without this, overcoming the demographic crisis will be impossible, which may have long-term consequences for the country's future.