Men live an average of 59 years, and women – 71: what will the population of Ukraine be by 2040?

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On the McKinsey Global Institute's world demographic map, Ukraine is marked as one of the worst areas in terms of fertility, along with the Greater China region. According to demographers, on average, only six children are born per 10 families.

Over the almost three years of full-scale war in Ukraine, male life expectancy has dropped from 65 to 57 years, worsening an already critical situation. In addition, the country has become one of the leaders in the lowest birth rate in the world.

Fertility rate: situation in Ukraine and the world

On the McKinsey Global Institute's world demographic map, Ukraine is marked as one of the worst areas in terms of fertility rate, along with the Greater China region. However, even where the fertility rate is one child per family, the situation is better than in Ukraine: here there are only six children per 10 families. This is the worst indicator in the world, even taking into account the war.

Unlike Ukraine, the population growth situation in the European Union is currently stabilizing due to migration. However, the demographic crisis is also affecting this region: the average birth rate in Europe is only 1.4 children per couple, while at least two children are needed to replace generations.

Population of Ukraine: What are the scenarios

The first and only census of Ukraine was conducted in 2001. At that time, the population of Ukraine was 48.5 million people. According to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences, as of July 2024, the population had decreased to 35.8 million people, of which only 31.1 million live in the controlled territory. This is almost 7 million less than at the beginning of 2022, when there were 42 million.

The strategy envisages two development scenarios: inertial (without significant changes) and a change scenario aimed at stimulating the birth rate and the return of emigrants. However, even in the best case, it will not be possible to reach the pre-crisis level of 41 million inhabitants in the near future.

To overcome the demographic crisis, Ukraine needs not only to stabilize the situation after the war, but also to actively attract labor migrants. To meet the needs of reconstruction, about 300 thousand workers should arrive in the country annually. In the future, these may be mainly migrants from Asia or Africa.

The expected average life expectancy in Ukraine will gradually increase. As of 2024, this figure was only 64.1 years. At the same time:

• The average life expectancy of men is 57.3 years;
• The average life expectancy of women is 70.9 years.

According to the inertial scenario, by 2040 the average life expectancy may increase to 71 years: for men – to 66 years, and for women – to 75.8 years.